Greetings friends,

As we approach 2025, the residential real estate markets in Phoenix’s East Valley—specifically attractive communities of Gilbert and Queen Creek—remain front and center for buyers, sellers, and investors alike. The region’s steady economic growth, excellent lifestyle offerings, and ongoing demand for housing continue to shape the market dynamics as we leave 2024 behind. Whether you’re a homeowner, first-time buyer, or investor, understanding the trends and forecasts for the upcoming year will provide valuable insights into what to expect in Gilbert and Queen Creek.

2024 Real Estate Overview: Key Trends and Market Performance

The 2024 real estate market in metro Phoenix’s East Valley was characterized by a mix of resilience and adaptability. While affordability remained a nationwide challenge, Phoenix’s East Valley continued to shine as an attractive option for families, professionals, and retirees. Sellers have had to adjust to the market conditions favoring the buyer, especially when contrasting against the buyer frenzy of the previous couple of years.  Average days on market has risen and prices have stabilized in most areas, dipping in others.  Homes aren’t selling in a day with multiple offers anymore and sellers need to extend some patience to the market and have realistic pricing expectations.

In Gilbert, the demand for homes was stronger than most competing municipalities in 2024, thanks to its well-established infrastructure, excellent schools, and community-centric lifestyle. Master-planned neighborhoods like Morrison Ranch and Agritopia continued to appeal to families, while job growth in tech, healthcare, and education kept the local economy strong. Median home prices hovered around $550,000 for much of the year, reflecting a modest increase as the market maintained balance.

Queen Creek, stood out as a rising star. With its mix of affordability and new development, this once-rural area continued to draw buyers looking for more value. Builders responded to the increasing demand with a surge in new housing developments, offering energy-efficient, modern homes with larger lot sizes. Median home prices in Queen Creek averaged $525,000, making it an attractive option for buyers priced out of other Phoenix metro areas.

Changes in the Real Estate Industry in 2024

Industry professionals, of any industry, understand that there is public perception of that industry, and then there is the reality of the experience of those working in that industry daily.  The real estate industry underwent a significant change in 2024.  Being an industry professional, I was intimately aware of these changes, what led to them, what they intend to accomplish and what the potential impact will be.  For those that want a peek under the hood, I’ll offer some comments here.   Earlier this year, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), was subject to litigation regarding the practices of certain members.  That suit won class action status and NAR was unable to successfully defend the case. An appeal process was started, followed by a settlement in which NAR admitted no wrongdoing, but mandated it’s members with practice changes to be incorporated into their enforcing document, the Realtor Code of Ethics.  The suit centered around offers of compensation to buyer’s agents and how that information is conveyed.  Most licensed agents are part of the 1.3-million-member trade organization (NAR).  I am a member and have been since I obtained my license 20 years ago.  NAR’s failure to successfully defend the lawsuit, and the mandates they imposed on their members, have led to many agents looking for other options.

These are the practice changes to expect as of August of this year.

-Listing agents are no longer able to put offers of compensation in our Multiple Listing Service.  This means buyer agents are not assured compensation just by the listing being in the MLS. Compensation to the buyer’s agent will now be negotiated in the purchase agreement.

-For this reason, buyers’ agents will be working with written employment agreements with their buyer clients.  Basically, they will work for the buyer’s agent under an agreement that if the seller will not compensate them, then the buyer will.

These changes will impact how buyers and sellers interact with their agents, and with each other through their agents.  Like any big change, this will be messy until a new normal is established.

If you would ever like to discuss the industry, NAR, the lawsuit or the practice changes, I am always available for a phone call or discussion.  I have a lot of opinions and feelings about all of this as you can imagine.

Forecast for 2025: What to Expect in Gilbert and Queen Creek

Looking ahead to 2025, there is plenty to keep an eye on.  Interest rates for mortgages continue to be higher than most are used to.  If relief comes, it will likely be slow and measured.  This will continue to affect affordability which of course impacts demand.  As I write this, the terminal on Bloomberg is flashing “housing starts fall in December and inventory of builder spec homes is at a 17 year high”.  Not encouraging way to move into the new year but we will see what unfolds.

Gilbert:

Gilbert will continue to build on its reputation as one of the most desirable suburbs in the Phoenix metro area. The town’s strong local economy, family-friendly environment, and excellent amenities will keep the community attractive to new residents.  We don’t forecast future markets, we look at current trends and see if they continue in real time.  The market has gone from stabilized, to balanced, to now buyer advantage.

That said communities like Power Ranch, Seville, and Layton Lakes will remain sought-after, offering buyers a mix of modern homes, green spaces, and community amenities. Additionally, the revitalization of Gilbert’s Heritage District will enhance its appeal to young professionals and families looking for dining, entertainment, and cultural attractions close to home.

For buyers, Gilbert will remain an attractive market with limited inventory in its most popular neighborhoods. Sellers, on the other hand, will need to put their best foot forward and exercise some patience.

Queen Creek:

Queen Creek’s transformation will continue well into 2025, solidifying its position as one of the fastest-growing communities in the Phoenix metro area. With more new construction and planned developments on the horizon, Queen Creek will attract buyers looking for affordable options without sacrificing space or amenities.

New master-planned communities like Barney Farms, Harvest, and Terravella will dominate the Queen Creek market, offering modern designs, family-friendly amenities, and innovative features like community lakes, parks, and walking trails.

For first-time homebuyers and families, Queen Creek remains an appealing option with its balance of affordability, modern living, and small-town charm. Investors will also find opportunities in Queen Creek’s rental market, where demand for single-family homes continues to rise alongside population growth.

The Takeaway: Desirability vs Affordability        

Metro Phoenix, like most of the sunbelt will remain attractive destinations for domestic migration. Communities like Gilbert and Queen Creek will likely do better than most when it comes to buyer demand due to the unique qualities of life they have to offer.  Affordability will continue to be a problem as long as interest rates are high.  It’s one thing to pay a high price for a house you can sell later, vs a lot of interest payments you will never see again.  Both affect affordability, one likely comes back to the homeowner when they sell.

 

As always our team remains available to assist with questions about markets, the industry or your specific property. We value our buyer and seller clients and recognize the trust they put in us to serve them well.  Markets will change, that never will.

Until next time,

 

Mark Newman